Saturday, July 1, 2017

British Columbia: Four Minority Parties as of 2013

There's been a lot of traffic (by my standards)  to an old Post from just before the 2013 election which the BC NDP were poised to win, and didn't.

The 2017 talk of late is about the minority Government of the BC NDP, with the assistance of three Green MLAs in conjunction with the dismal performance by BC Liberal Leader Christy Clark's 2017 election campaign and in combination with her bizarre clone Throne speech.  Both items have left the small 'c' BC conservatives within the BC Liberal Party looking towards their future not being a minority party within another minority party (BC Liberals).



If Christy Clark has to face a leadership debate, and loses, then the only option for the new leader if he/she is not an MLA is to look to someone who is an MLA (on the BC Liberal side) to step down.

Would Christy Clark do a Gordon Campbell and resign?   ??? not likely unless there was a High Commissioner Carrot waiting in the wings in the hands of another Prime Minister of Canada.

If Christy Clark did resign her Kelowna-West-revolving-door-mla-seat it would once again be up for grabs, with two catches for the new Opposition Leader to win the seat.

One:
The BC Liberals no longer being the government, no longer have access to the deep 2013 Treasury account pockets to offer a 'bona fide' job to another outgoing Kelowna-West MLA another job in China.

Two:
The BC conservatives could win the seat in Kelowna-West.


Question for the BC Legislature Clerk:

If the BC NDP / Green  coalitions works for one or two years, will the next Government be in for the remainder of the 2017 - 2021 term or would it be four years from 2018 or 2019 to 2022 to 2023?



March 23, 2013 Post

We spent the afternoon using data from before 2009 and after, AND we used two different sources:

Rossk's:    The Gazetteer:

http://pacificgazette.blogspot.ca/2013/03/is-mr-cummins-now-officially-zombie.html 



And:

Adrian MacNair's:    Unambiguously Ambidextrous

http://unambig.com/will-fall-of-b-c-liberals-give-sway-to-b-c-conservatives/


And then just at the last minute we hit the Microsoft's Excel TrendLine button, for each Party......

PS.... the data provided by the Pollsters isn't for every month, .... it appears to be done in the same fashion as the Historical Prime Rate..... if the data doesn't go up or down.... they just don't record it... and then when things really goes sideways they'll put two sets of data in one month..... we went for every month.... even if it meant using the same numbers till there was a change....either up or down. 

Comments:

Grant G said...
Nicely done.

We appreciate your hard work.


Thanks friend
Norm Farrell said...
Interesting. Will be discouraging to Liberal partisans. If the graph started January 2009, the trend lines would be even more discouraging to those folks.

1 comment:

e.a.f. said...

If Christy isn't premier, who knows how long the former MLA will retain his job in China. Once he is back he may want his old "job" back. The party has nothing to offer him, except perhaps cash and I do expect there is a law against paying people to not run for office.

It is doubtful Christy has any intention of resigning. she was in the riding front and centre sending the message, I'm here to stay. This is my turf.

Where would a new leader run? Who knows. Stephanie Cadieux had a good lead, but if she resigned where would she go. Its not like she has been a star who could move on to other things. Jobs such as MLA are hard to come by with the salary, $12K a year housing allowance, medical and dental benefits, nice pension. No one is going to be giving that up any time soon.

The B.C. Lieberal party may find they are in for difficult times if Christy doesn't leave on her own. What has to be done is find her a job which will have the same benefits and salary as her current job. She is no Glen Clark when it comes to job skills. She might be able to find a gig on radio, but times have changed.

el gordo had a skill set which he was able to peddle to the federal Conservatives, Christy not so much. The federal Liberals have lots of people they can draw from to post every where and any where. The senate is not going to be one of those places either.

It maybe interesting if the Conservatives who belong to the B.C. Lieberals decide to strike out on their own. They may stand a better chance. it will be entertaining to watch the show.