Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Christy Clark's LNG 100,000 jobs plan by 2021 is a BUST..... with Employers "putting more Skin in the Game"

Grant G.,  over at the Straight Goods, has been THE most outspoken critic of Christy Clark's fictitious creation of 100,000 jobs that was used to convince the undecided, to vote for the BC Liberals in the 2013 provincial election.

On March 31, 2014 the truth was released via a MOU between Canada and British Columbia 

.... By requiring employers to put more skin in the game, the Canada Job Grant will result in training that leads to guaranteed jobs....  Credits:
Jason Kenney and Shirley Bond
... and for Good Measure .. 
Stevie Harper and Christy Clark.
"put more Skin in the Game" - Jason Kenney & Shirley Bond
The main issues surrounding "skin" or excess "skin" is the principal–agent problem whereby transparency and fiduciary obligations are disregarded by principals who have capital or excess capital (skin) tied into an entity. - Wikipedia
100,000 jobs eh.

If this is the way the Clark government counts, then everyone should be taking a much closer look at Mike de Jong's Budget numbers!

Skip  the first paragraph in the Press release because those numbers are for ALL of Canada.

Second paragraph:  Christy Clark grabbed onto the low hanging fruit of 100,000 jobs without noticing, or did, and ignored, that one requirement of the 100,000 jobs would only happen if there were FIVE (5) fully functioning LNG plants by 2021.

Well that's not quite true, if we're talking about JOBS, Direct, that will last.

39,000 jobs would be created each year within those nine years and not every one of those FIVE (5) LNG plants would be under construction at the same time.  Using their math  39,000 X 9 = 351,000 would be created.  Maybe another reading Grant Thornton LLP numbers is that at the end of each year 39,000 will be lost, and overnight 39,000 will be re-created.  In other words there are no additional jobs being created on top of the initial 39,000.

Five LNG plants will have 75,000 job openings once they are all operational....... 75,000 / 5 =  15,000 jobs.   "- more than 100,000 jobs in total."

39,000 + 75,000 = 114,000  jobs in total, not all at the same time, and not really enough of an encouragement, an incentive, for workers from outside of northern British Columbia to up roots locally, and move UP there, to buy a house, pay a mortgage, and sell eventually.

The second coming of Ocean Falls.      If you're wondering what a community would look like with 15,000, including dependents...... there are 39 all told in British Columbia to name a few like: Bowen Island, Fort Nelson, Grand Forks, Harrison Hot Springs, Keremeos, Sparwood, Tumbler Ridge, Ucluelet, Oliver, Clearwater.  OCEAN FALLS is not on the list!

 Governments of Canada and British Columbia take action to create jobs
Finalize agreement on the Canada Job Grant

Quick Facts (Page 1 of 5)

In the next 10 years, Canada is expected to need 319,000 new workers in the construction sector, with another 145,000 new workers in the mining sector and 130,000 new workers in the petroleum sector needed by 2020.

Accounting and business advisory firm Grant Thornton LLP concluded that a liquefied natural gas industry in British Columbia, based on five plants operating by 2021, could create more than 39,000 jobs annually over a nine-year construction period and approximately 75,000 jobs once the plants were fully operational — more than 100,000 jobs in total.

Since its launch in 2007, the Targeted Initiative for Older Workers has helped over 4,100 unemployed older workers in British Columbia.
15,000 permanent jobs seems like a lot of overhead.   Three shifts, Two shifts??? 5,000, 7,500?? per LNG Plant

The Question, is Answered by the BC Government asking their own loaded Question at Canada Starts Here:
BCJobs Plan:
Share your Ideas
Question How can BC communities and businesses get ready to seize the opportunities coming with liquefied natural gas (LNG)?

In February 2012, government released a natural gas strategy – called British Columbia’s natural gas strategy: Fuelling BC’s economy for the next decade and beyond – and a complementary strategy that focus on developing our province’s crucial new LNG sector.

Based on current plans, industry is projected to invest up to $48 billion in LNG facilities and pipelines from 2013 to 2022, diversifying BC’s natural gas sector and facilitating new economic opportunities. Construction of three large LNG facilities and more than 1,500 kilometres of pipeline could result in 1,400 long-term jobs. Indirectly, the new LNG industry will also support thousands of spin-off jobs in the fields of transportation, engineering, construction and environmental management.
Quite a leap in job creation numbers with Three LARGE LNG plants to Five LARGE LNG plants, eh.    1,400 to 15,000 per

Hugh, in the Comment section, has the answer to the 75,000 jobs!, the TILMA agreement between Alberta and British Columbia that was signed in 2007 claimed there would be 78,000 new jobs.   Here it is seven years later, and depending on how one wants to do the Math, we're either short by 3,000 or 25,000.  If it's the latter number then that would fit right in with the Five LNG Plants needs of maintenance, sort of, for the next 30 years when the Five LNG plants will have to be replaced.  If it's the latter, the higher number, there will be 22,000 on the dole.


Hugh said...

I'm still waiting to see the 78,000 new jobs they promised from TILMA. That was about 8 years ago.

e.a.f. said...

never let it be said the truth stood between Christy Clark and getting elected. Christy Clark's version of the truth and facts are usually two different things.

Hugh said...

LNG? Let's pollute billions of liters of water, and pump it underground to release the gas.

Then we'll waste a massive amount of natural gas, and renewable energy from BC Hydro (sold at a loss), to create LNG.

Then we'll ship it 7,000 km to Asia. Brilliant plan. Not.

Hugh said...

TILMA has resulted in Zero new jobs. I inquired, they couldn't name one.