Monday, January 30, 2017

British Columbia's promised forecast Bottom Line on LNG production doesn't take effect until

Rich Coleman's double hump projection of wells drilled didn't exist when his document was created, during an election year, and coincidentally never happened in reality of another election year.  The BC Liberals continue to use the same data 'proving' how much LNG revenue will impact the bottom line for British Columbians by eliminating the current Debt.

If that were true of the benefits of exporting LNG then EVERY country, province, state in the world  ... selling LNG are already, or will soon to be, debt free, long before British Columbia.

Why hasn't that kind of data, a comparison of British Columbia 'what if' failures to other entities 'success' stories, been provided by the BC Liberals?

We're in for another election in May, where's the proof of the Coleman's Forecast Scenario projection or for that matter, the completion of five projects producing/exporting by 2020 with 75% coming from north east British Columbia?
Page 1 of 5
Third paragraph from page 1 above
The Forecast Scenario is based on the assumption of five (5) new LNG plants on the west coast exporting 82 Megatonnes per year of LNG by 2020.  The amount of natural gas necessary to produce this amount of LNG would be 11.6 billion cubic feet per day (BCF/D) of marketable gas, or 15 BCF/D of raw gas.  This Forecast assumes 75 per cent of this gas will come from northeast B.C.

LNG Forecast Scenario - BC Oil and Gas Commission

Page 2 of 5
Bottom Line of information from page 2 above

There are currently more than 23,000 wells drilled in British Columbia.

In 2013 (election year), 565 wells were drilled and the province produced and average of 4.25 BDF/D of raw gas, or 3.75 BCF/D of marketable gas.

Data in the chart represents all wells drilled.  Natural gas wells account for approximately 90-95 per cent of all drilling activity  in the province.

By 2020 natural gas production will plateau at 11.6 BCF/D to supply the new LNG export market.

The majority of gas for LNG will come from the Horn River and Montney basins.  The speed of development in each basin is dependent upon the order in which LNG projects come into service.

Page 5 of 5  The disclaimer should be run with every commercial that the BC Liberal Government and BC Liberal Party produces, and their friends at Resource Works ....


This document contains forecasts that are based on assumptions and predictions of future events that may or may not turn out to be true.

We undertake no obligation to publically update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future development or otherwise.


Pipeline News North
The $1.8-billion facility would liquify natural gas drilled near Dawson Creek and export it to Asian markets at a rate of about 2.4 million tones per year, according to the EAO. 

 A far cry from the promised 11.6 BCF/D by 2020

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

like BCHydro, firm forecast but reality pans out as flat.for political post truth?